31 January 2010
“Live betting” at WSEX offers intrigue
Posted by QuikSand under: Prediction Markets .
While this site has mostly focused on markets that are beatable based on better information than the crowd… the pseudomarkets at WSEX have always been an intriguing exception to that principle. And while we tend to talk “long term” here, I’ll depart for a moment and discuss the absolute imposter of a long-term market — the short-term pseudomarket.
At WESX, during high profile sports events they frequently offer a “live betting” market, set up like their usual “long term market” but designed to resolve by the end of the immediate game. In football, these tend to be fast-paced when the meaningful outcome (often the result of the game *against the original point spread*) is in doubt.
A great case in point is the recent NFC Championship game. The WSEX spread was New Orleans -3.5, and the game at one point was clearly going to overtime. In my view, the in-game markets took some time to properly recognize the likelihood of NO covering that point spread (i.e. that even in most situations when they would win, they would do so with a field goal). For much of the overtime period, the BUY price for the Saints to cover the 3.5 points swung from a low of about 12 to a high of nearly 30. This is a situation calling for more “gut” than deep analysis… but one of our principles here is that while it’s tough to beat a deep, well-informed market of independent thinkers… it’s not necessarily so tough to beat a pseudomarket that is simply created on both sides artificially by someone’s judgment.
Whether WSEX uses some sort of down-and-distance formula (seems likely) or relies on “a guy at a computer” their play-by-play price adjustments are bound to trigger some opportunities.
With another high profile football game next weekend, there’s likely another money-making opportunity about to present itself.