17 January 2010
Massachussetts Senate race making for lively market
Posted by QuikSand under: Prediction Markets .
Some recent discussion at 538 hovers along the race itself, accuracy of polling, and the prediction markets as a stand-along element of that discussion.
As of ths writing, Intrade has the race fairly close to a tossup (odd for Massachusetts, of course) but more importantly for those in pursuit of worthwhile money, a fairly deep market for that site. If you like a Democrat win at a price of about 48, you can find around 100 shares (and many more around 50). If you expect a Republican win, there’s similar depth at price points of about 56, 57.5, and 58.5.
Since one of our frustrations in Intrade markets hass been their relative lack of depth — we at least ought to tip the cap to a fairly close American special election, that seems to attract enough isolated attention to make the markets worth a plunge, if you see value.
One Comment so far...
Andrew Says:
18 January 2010 at 6:57 pm.
There’s so little volume on intrade it’s miserable to try and trade
Would love to know how TradeSports failed while inTrade is still alive? How? Would gladly pay a membership fee for TradeSports.