30 December 2009
Future odds for NFC market
Posted by QuikSand under: Prediction Markets .
Since we’ve been hitting the NFC heavily here to date, I thought I’d offer another tool for some perspective.
The nice automated tools at Oddschecker give us the “best available” price for a variety of markets (principally European ones) but even if you lack the flexibility to actually bet in the many online venues they cover, they can still serve as a worthwhile sanity check.
Our picks from the WSEX markets have been Philadelphia, Green Bay, and Arizona. Price checking with Oddschecker gives us:
Team WSEX Buy (as +odds) Oddschecker best price
New Orleans 45 (+122) 6/4 (+150)
Minnesota 21 (+376) 11/2 (+450)
Philadelphia 17 (+488) 7/2 (+250)
Dallas 13 (+669) 6/1 (+600)
Green Bay 10 (+900) 12/1 (+1200)
Arizona 10 (+900) 17/2 (+850)
So — if we use the multiple Euro/world future markets as a starting point, we see that the strongest play in the WSEX pseudomarket is clearly Philadelphia, who is paying substantially better than the best out there. You’ve heard this already here, but that’s a worthwhile play.
As a subsidiary play, we’re close to having a “sure thing” available with New Orleans. A SELL at WSEX ft $40 can be offset by a buy elsewhere at (essentially) $40 right now. A few ticks the right direction in either market could turn that into a free “both ways” play. For the rare player who has the liquidity and flexibility to do so, that’s tough to beat.
2 Comments so far...
Harmy G Says:
31 December 2009 at 10:09 am.
Your “sure thing” is basically an arbitrage, correct? I’ve actually already done that in several places using sportsbook.com as my other book. Guaranteed profit! Last week had better opportunities, however.
But, the best price for Philly on other markets is +250? I’ve seen +350 at the first two non-WSEX books I looked at.
QuikSand Says:
31 December 2009 at 10:42 am.
Yes, you’re right that finding wide enough splits in competing markets essentially creates an arbitrage opportunity… the key is finding a place like WSEX that allows you to short (i.e. Sell a share you don’t currently own), as most conventional markets are just future markets offering a set of odds for the “good’ bettor.
If you have other locations online that are useful for tracking down multiple market offerings, I’m all ears — would be glad to link to them, or fold them into our comparisons.