26 December 2009
Sanity prevails in NFC pseudomarkets
Posted by QuikSand under: Prediction Markets .
Quickly following up on our recent post about the WSEX NFC markets, we had speculated that the first loss by New Orleans might lead to an overreaction in their pricing.
Short version — not really. Their share price dropped overnight from a buy of $48 to one of $45 following the loss, pretty much in keeping with what seems reasonable (as we have discussed here, this is the market for playoff success, not playoff seeding).
The next day, the Minnesota Vikings — the only other team who could possibly claim the #1 seed– also lost, and did so in a fashion perhaps even more damaging image-wise than did the Saints. After the Sunday games, the buy price for the Saintss bumped back to $47, where is has rested all week.
No major opportunity creeping up there…from the simple perspective of “likelihood of claiming the #1 seed” it was actually a pretty good week for the Saints, who just need to avoid losing ground to the Vikings.
Stay tuned… we’ll keep watching this one.