17 December 2009
Dodd’s Senate future, and market futures, looking bleak
Posted by QuikSand under: Prediction Markets .
Senator Christopher Dodd, a prominent figure in legislative oversight of the financial crises, and now also in the health care debate, has come under fire in his home state of Connecticut. His Senatorial race in the fall of 2010 is not looking like the usual situation for a well-established incumbent.
Polling information from RealClearPolitics puts Dodd currently behind his presumptive GOP challenger by double digits.
Intrade has seen this market get a little attention, and the market doesn’t much like Dodd’s chances, either. Shares of a Democratis win for the open CT seat are at an ASK price of about $45.
Anything interesting in this market? Probably not right now. But in time, it’s hard to imagine that a well-funded incumbent will really get crushed in this race — so the respective market prices probably overestimate the certainty of his loss. Once we get into 2010 campaign mode (alas, when are we not in campaign mode?) this market ought to tighten, and the $45 price likely elevates.