9 December 2009
Packers and Eagles Worth A Look in NFC
Posted by albionmoonlight under: Prediction Markets .
As this season has progressed, the Saints and the Vikings have taken all of the oxygen from the “who will win the NFC” debate. Right now, the teams combine for a $73 buy price on the WSEX market. As we have noted before, there is probably some overvalue at the top of this pseudomarket. In fact, if you recall, the season opened with several teams seen as legitimate choices to win the NFC. And, with the possible exception of the Chicago Bears, it isn’t like unathletic body snatchers from Pluto came down and replaced the players on those teams. Instead, some teams with real talent have simply been over-looked by the public in favor of the teams of the moment–the Vikings and Saints.
So, is there value to be found among the still-good-but-overlooked? If you beleive the Football Outsiders guys, there is. Right now, they have the Eagles and Packers as the second and third best teams in football. Right now, you can buy the Eagles to win the NFC for $10 and the Packers for $7 at WSEX.
When you consider that the Vikings have had a very easy schedule thus far, and the Saints have played three games against bad/average teams that they could/should have lost (Dolphins, Rams, Redskins), $7 and $10 look like pretty good prices for teams that have the talent to go to the Super Bowl and (according to Football Outsiders) have been playing at a level equal to that talent.
3 Comments so far...
Harmy G Says:
9 December 2009 at 4:35 pm.
It looks like good prices for those teams, but when you look at FO’s own odds, http://footballoutsiders.com/stats/playoffodds with Philly at 7.2% to win the NFC and GB at 4.8%, the value doesn’t seem to be there.
Kevin Says:
10 December 2009 at 11:26 am.
I imagine part of what you’re making the bet on there is that one of the two makes it to the divisional playoffs - I’d imagine one could sell the Eagles for higher than 10 if they make it through the first round.
Worthwhile Money » NFC markets — what to do, what to do… Says:
29 December 2009 at 9:58 am.
[...] with this week the BUY price for the Saints landing at $45, down from $47 before this weekend. We renew our call here that there is potential value in the market here for the less-pricey candidate teams, like the [...]