7 March 2010
Oscar evening opportunities?
Posted by QuikSand under: Prediction Markets .
We weren’t able to cover the Academy Award markets as we had hoped, but during this evening’s ceremonies, expect the markets at Intrade to be fairly lively, especially for Best Picture. It’s true that some earlier, more “generic” awards can start to build momentum for a sweep-style best picture (best theory there is: many voters seem to pick their winner, and then vote a sort of “ticket” where that film is eligible).
Anyway, watch out for a “Crash” at the end, though. A couple of years ago, Brokeback Mountain was the Best PIcture favorite and built momentum through the evening (with pseudomarkets at WSEX following suit) and then got stunned at the end by Crash.
The potential twist this evening is that one of the Best Picture favorites, Avatar, could easily receive honors for effects-style award, but still lose in Best Picture to a film like Hurt Locker. If that’s the seeming direction, there may be less momentum this evening than usual, even. Tread carefully.
Enjoy.
2 Comments so far...
QuikSand Says:
7 March 2010 at 11:00 pm.
The wins in the sound category for Hurt Locker would be the most obvious sign there to me. Intrade players seem to agree, it has bumped by around 10 bucks since the show started.
farfel Says:
8 March 2010 at 1:39 am.
How that the Academy Awards are over, what is there left to trade?