7March2010
Posted by QuikSand under: Prediction Markets.
We weren’t able to cover the Academy Award markets as we had hoped, but during this evening’s ceremonies, expect the markets at Intrade to be fairly lively, especially for Best Picture. It’s true that some earlier, more “generic” awards can start to build momentum for a sweep-style best picture (best theory there is: many voters seem to pick their winner, and then vote a sort of “ticket” where that film is eligible).
Anyway, watch out for a “Crash” at the end, though. A couple of years ago, Brokeback Mountain was the Best PIcture favorite and built momentum through the evening (with pseudomarkets at WSEX following suit) and then got stunned at the end by Crash.
The potential twist this evening is that one of the Best Picture favorites, Avatar, could easily receive honors for effects-style award, but still lose in Best Picture to a film like Hurt Locker. If that’s the seeming direction, there may be less momentum this evening than usual, even. Tread carefully.
Enjoy.
27February2010
Posted by QuikSand under: Prediction Markets.
While there doesn’t seem to be a lot of depth yet, the offerings from Antigua-based Matchbook suggest that we may have another real entry into the prediction market game.
They seem to be mostly sports offerings, but have some current events and related markets set up as well. Worth a look.
Here’s an excerpt from some of their FAQs:
Who made Matchbook . . . and why?
Matchbook is a betting exchange designed by a group of venture investors and professional sports bettors with one common goal: to cut the bookmaker out of the betting process and create a neutral, transparent platform that players can use without any intermediaries.
We seek to create a global betting community where anyone - from the casual $5 bettor to the serious professional who’s been underserved by the offshore industry - can trade on a cutting-edge exchange platform at the lowest possible cost.
Sounds…worthwhile. More to come.
16February2010
Posted by albionmoonlight under: Prediction Markets.
If you read this blog, chances are good that you also read fivethrityeight.com. And, if you were there recently, you noted some analysis describing why the markets might be pricing a GOP takeover of the Senate too highly. Upon reading that analysis, your first thought may have been like mine–go to Intrade and see what the action looks like.
And, if you went, you saw something that should have stopped you in your tracks immediately:
Whatever your feelings about the GOP, Nate Silver, or placing futures bets in February for elections that will happen in November, the insane spread on that bet should make it a 100% stay away from either side.
Until these markets become liquid enough to create reasonable bid/ask spreads, they are simply not worth your time or money, period.
31January2010
Posted by QuikSand under: Prediction Markets.
While this site has mostly focused on markets that are beatable based on better information than the crowd… the pseudomarkets at WSEX have always been an intriguing exception to that principle. And while we tend to talk “long term” here, I’ll depart for a moment and discuss the absolute imposter of a long-term market — the short-term pseudomarket.
At WESX, during high profile sports events they frequently offer a “live betting” market, set up like their usual “long term market” but designed to resolve by the end of the immediate game. In football, these tend to be fast-paced when the meaningful outcome (often the result of the game *against the original point spread*) is in doubt.
A great case in point is the recent NFC Championship game. The WSEX spread was New Orleans -3.5, and the game at one point was clearly going to overtime. In my view, the in-game markets took some time to properly recognize the likelihood of NO covering that point spread (i.e. that even in most situations when they would win, they would do so with a field goal). For much of the overtime period, the BUY price for the Saints to cover the 3.5 points swung from a low of about 12 to a high of nearly 30. This is a situation calling for more “gut” than deep analysis… but one of our principles here is that while it’s tough to beat a deep, well-informed market of independent thinkers… it’s not necessarily so tough to beat a pseudomarket that is simply created on both sides artificially by someone’s judgment.
Whether WSEX uses some sort of down-and-distance formula (seems likely) or relies on “a guy at a computer” their play-by-play price adjustments are bound to trigger some opportunities.
With another high profile football game next weekend, there’s likely another money-making opportunity about to present itself.
17January2010
Posted by QuikSand under: Prediction Markets.
Some recent discussion at 538 hovers along the race itself, accuracy of polling, and the prediction markets as a stand-along element of that discussion.
As of ths writing, Intrade has the race fairly close to a tossup (odd for Massachusetts, of course) but more importantly for those in pursuit of worthwhile money, a fairly deep market for that site. If you like a Democrat win at a price of about 48, you can find around 100 shares (and many more around 50). If you expect a Republican win, there’s similar depth at price points of about 56, 57.5, and 58.5.
Since one of our frustrations in Intrade markets hass been their relative lack of depth — we at least ought to tip the cap to a fairly close American special election, that seems to attract enough isolated attention to make the markets worth a plunge, if you see value.
30December2009
Posted by QuikSand under: Prediction Markets.
Since we’ve been hitting the NFC heavily here to date, I thought I’d offer another tool for some perspective.
The nice automated tools at Oddschecker give us the “best available” price for a variety of markets (principally European ones) but even if you lack the flexibility to actually bet in the many online venues they cover, they can still serve as a worthwhile sanity check.
Our picks from the WSEX markets have been Philadelphia, Green Bay, and Arizona. Price checking with Oddschecker gives us:
Team WSEX Buy (as +odds) Oddschecker best price
New Orleans 45 (+122) 6/4 (+150)
Minnesota 21 (+376) 11/2 (+450)
Philadelphia 17 (+488) 7/2 (+250)
Dallas 13 (+669) 6/1 (+600)
Green Bay 10 (+900) 12/1 (+1200)
Arizona 10 (+900) 17/2 (+850)
So — if we use the multiple Euro/world future markets as a starting point, we see that the strongest play in the WSEX pseudomarket is clearly Philadelphia, who is paying substantially better than the best out there. You’ve heard this already here, but that’s a worthwhile play.
As a subsidiary play, we’re close to having a “sure thing” available with New Orleans. A SELL at WSEX ft $40 can be offset by a buy elsewhere at (essentially) $40 right now. A few ticks the right direction in either market could turn that into a free “both ways” play. For the rare player who has the liquidity and flexibility to do so, that’s tough to beat.
29December2009
Posted by QuikSand under: Prediction Markets.
As we have been following the WSEX markets for the NFC championship, this weekend posed a genuine fork in the road for the top dog, the New Orleans Saints.
Sitting at a buy price of $47 coming into this weekend, the Saints could lock up home field advantage with a solid showing — and that’s essentially all they can accomplish during the regular season, for purposes of the playoffs-based market we are watching. However, the results from the Saints’ actual weekend are more mixed:
-they lost their game against the lowly Tampa Bay Buccaneers, looking rather unlike a top contender in doing so; but
-when Minnesota lost on Monday Night (in slightly less disappointing fashion to an oddly rejuvenated Chicago bears team playing at home), the Saints still “backed into” the NFC’s top seed
So — the mathematical possibility of New Orleans having to play a road game is now eliminated. That’s good for their share price. But to the extend you subscribe to belief in things like momentum across the season, what you have seen on the field the last two weeks doesn’t exactly inspire confidence to make the Saints a nearly odds-on proposition.
The WSEX pseudomarket has essentially split the difference, with this week the BUY price for the Saints landing at $45, down from $47 before this weekend. We renew our call here that there is potential value in the market here for the less-pricey candidate teams, like the Philadelphia Eagles (buy at $17), Green Bay Packers (buy at $9) and perhaps the Arizona Cardinals (buy at $10).
26December2009
Posted by QuikSand under: Prediction Markets.
Quickly following up on our recent post about the WSEX NFC markets, we had speculated that the first loss by New Orleans might lead to an overreaction in their pricing.
Short version — not really. Their share price dropped overnight from a buy of $48 to one of $45 following the loss, pretty much in keeping with what seems reasonable (as we have discussed here, this is the market for playoff success, not playoff seeding).
The next day, the Minnesota Vikings — the only other team who could possibly claim the #1 seed– also lost, and did so in a fashion perhaps even more damaging image-wise than did the Saints. After the Sunday games, the buy price for the Saintss bumped back to $47, where is has rested all week.
No major opportunity creeping up there…from the simple perspective of “likelihood of claiming the #1 seed” it was actually a pretty good week for the Saints, who just need to avoid losing ground to the Vikings.
Stay tuned… we’ll keep watching this one.
19December2009
Posted by QuikSand under: Prediction Markets.
We have previously discussed here the pseudomarket at WSEX for the NFC conference championship. New Orleans, with its unblemished record has driven its BUY price all the way to $48, as they seem on target for the conference’s #1 seed.
Tonight, it looks like they will fall from the ranks of the unbeaten. What happens to that $48 buy price? Let’s face it — the outcome of this game, barring any serious injuries, has very little do with whether this team will win the two playoff games it needs to secure the conference title. So, what happens to the share price?
Stay tuned, it should be updated as soon as tomorrow.
17December2009
Posted by QuikSand under: Prediction Markets.
Senator Christopher Dodd, a prominent figure in legislative oversight of the financial crises, and now also in the health care debate, has come under fire in his home state of Connecticut. His Senatorial race in the fall of 2010 is not looking like the usual situation for a well-established incumbent.
Polling information from RealClearPolitics puts Dodd currently behind his presumptive GOP challenger by double digits.
Intrade has seen this market get a little attention, and the market doesn’t much like Dodd’s chances, either. Shares of a Democratis win for the open CT seat are at an ASK price of about $45.
Anything interesting in this market? Probably not right now. But in time, it’s hard to imagine that a well-funded incumbent will really get crushed in this race — so the respective market prices probably overestimate the certainty of his loss. Once we get into 2010 campaign mode (alas, when are we not in campaign mode?) this market ought to tighten, and the $45 price likely elevates.